The war continues

Israel announced the end of operation Cast leadIgor BelkinIn the night of 17 to 18 January, the Israeli leadership is unexpectedly declared a unilateral ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the completion of the military operation "Cast lead", held in the Palestinian enclave for more than three weeks. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that the main task of the IDF in Gaza, made. Hamas to stop the opposition, refused, and continued to fire at Israeli cities.To assess Israel's actions in different ways: someone is sure that ceasing operation in Gaza Jerusalem actually succumbed to the entreaties and threats of the global community and decided to slow down in order not to quarrel with everyone. In this, at first glance, there is truth - because of the action of Jerusalem began to criticize even consistent allies of Israel in Washington, especially after they bombed the UN building in Gaza.Israel did not fail to come to "Lebanese" rake 2006. Criticism of Jerusalem, mainly related to "unbearably high", said UN Secretary General ban Ki-moon, the number of victims among the civilian population, was slightly less than during the Israeli war with Hizbullah. In the PR war with Hamas, Israel kept up pretty well, but because of a couple of not very successful "hits" of the IDF in the headquarters of TV companies and international organizations sympathies slowly began to move to the Islamists. From the Russian Foreign Ministry Jerusalem got an indignant message about the attack on the house of the correspondent of RIA Novosti and the Arabic version of Russia Today by Nazar Alana (in this case, fortunately, everything worked out, and neither the journalist nor his family members were not injured).The statements of Olmert that Israeli troops allegedly managed to achieve all these goals, reality, obviously, do not correspond. Within a few hours after the alleged truce, militants fired five Kassam "missiles on Sderot (without victims). And, if you remember, the cessation of attacks on Israeli cities was the main task of the IDF three weeks ago. Also Israeli Prime Minister certainly gave the report that the IDF managed to not destroy all the tunnels, which were delivered to Gaza weapons and food. And finally, Hamas continues, according to reports from the scene, sort of resembles the leadership of the Palestinian enclave.On the other hand, many have no doubt that Israel won. Hamas has suffered significant damage. "Working" in the IDF, but only at the end of "Cast lead", but as one airstrike on Thursday were killed three senior members of Hamas, including the head of the Ministry of internal Affairs of the unrecognized government groups. A significant part of the proverbial tunnel was really destroyed. And, not counting the two or three leaders, Hamas has missed several hundred fighters (if you believe the reports from the IDF).Once Olmert declared ceasefire, the international community unanimously rushed to Express a sense of deep satisfaction. It took less than 3 hours that the speed is very different from the attempts of the UN security Council to formulate any coherent position on the conflict. If you remember, after a week of meetings in pain was the result of the requirement for an immediate ceasefire, but neither side of the conflict at that time he was not going to follow.Now the Israeli military operation under the strange name "Cast lead" is over. Europe and the United States happy. A sworn enemy of Israel Iran, for example, - also: Tehran hastened to proclaim the defeat of the Jewish state. However, all somehow forgot about one little "but" that was the statement of the Israeli leadership.The IDF remains on the territory of Gaza. And reserves the right to "adequately respond" to the aggression of Hamas fighters. Given the fact that the Islamists refused to cease hostilities and promised to fight the Israelis to the bitter end, the situation changed dramatically in favor of Jerusalem. Surgery done? Finished, by popular demand. Promised not to bomb? See for yourself. Until Israel will fire the "Kassam" missiles and stationed in Gaza, the military will not attack, everyone will be alive and healthy.In this situation, the IDF remains just wait until Hamas have chickened out (and as show reports from Gaza, the Islamists could not sit in place in the first hours after the armistice), and then resume the operation, only this time under some other name, and sometimes even without it. And Israel will be a perfect excuse for the conduct of hostilities, which to him on a silver platter will bring Hamas itself.By the way, commenting on the violence in Gaza after the proclamation of the truce, Israeli Prime Minister Olmert noted that the future of operations in Gaza "constantly under review", hinting that "Cast lead" the fighting in Gaza will not end. So don't go far. The war continues.PS: As often happens, events have followed immediately after the publication of the article. After consulting in Cairo, leaders of Palestinian factions decided to call a truce for one week. During this time they are ready to consider peace proposals from third countries. Moreover, these proposals must contain the terms on which Israel in the foreseeable future will not (a full withdrawal of troops from Gaza and the lifting of the blockade of Gaza). The experience of the past weeks (months, years), the first "Kassam" missiles will fly towards Israel certainly earlier than the deadline announced by the parties of the truce. And the IDF nerves can take too.

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