Modernization risks of Dmitry Medvedev
The main obstacles to the implementation of the Message can be a dissipation of resources, conservatism and inertia of societyKonstantin RemchukovDrive and energy for the preparation of the annual Message Dmitry Medvedev drew in communication with the participants of the discussion of his article "Russia, forward!". The President did not hide that we are talking about a "new political strategy for Russia", and the people who took part in the discussion, merged at least understanding the need for change. The idea of change is the basis of the electoral strategies of recent years in many countries. The most famous of which was the presidential campaign of Barack Obama. Sociology unmistakably suggests: 70% of Americans want change regardless of party affiliation. At the same time in Russia and the Duma, and the presidential campaign was held under the slogan of "continuity". And we have the slogan was based on sociology: 70% of Russians did not want any change. The "fat years" that gave rise to an unprecedented state paternalism, clearly proved to them that stability is better than instability, and Putin's two-thousand better "dashing 90".The ruling party won at the last October election with irrational high result of 60%. Despite the obvious imperfections of the electoral process, the opposition acknowledges that the United Russia would have taken at least half of the votes. How is that possible? Why do people vote for the regime, when reduced to their material and social status?For me, the most obvious proof of the irrationality of choice is ignoring the topic of the growth of regulated tariffs. Adjustable, notice by the state. Me updated on September table of forecast growth rates in 2009. Electricity - regulated tariffs for the population (January) - 125%; natural gas sold to the population (December to December) - 127,7%; passenger transport (average for the year to the previous year) is 122%; consumer inflation (average for year) - 112%.These data show that the index of consumer prices significantly lower than the growth of tariffs, state-sanctioned power. It is also clear that the growth of prices in the unregulated market sector below the average level of inflation.To understand the logic of growth of rates in terms of GDP decline by 8.7% and industrial production by 15% is almost impossible. Anyway, in terms of logic States. In the years of economic growth, the government justified the increase of electricity price increases on the raw material that is burned for the generation of electricity. Everything on which there are many CHP, rose in price: gas, oil, coal. In the past year, with falling oil prices in 2 times, respectively, cheaper prices for gas (with a six-month lag), coal (2-3 times). So why should we pay more for heat and light?This question, apparently, of our voters are not interested. That is, they did not perceive the conduct of democratic elections as the method is effective to adjust the economic policy of the state government. Then what they show in the vote? Loyalty to the authorities? Support of the course? Perhaps this motif is important, but it is still not fully understood. No reasonable, rational person to volunteer to support the exchange rate on the growth rates and improve personal, family expenses! If the power for something and need it so why not to improve your life?So, our citizens in the voting perform a ritual, similar in form to choose from, but which is essentially a demonstration of something else. Love, for example, to Vladimir Putin or Yuri Luzhkov and wishes them many years of political.And here's socio-political and even psychological background Dmitry Medvedev said that "the need for change has become particularly evident in recent months". Agree, this statement is not obvious without specifying who "became especially obvious"?I see this as Medvedev's quest to change the source of deep conflict not only with the bureaucracy, but also with tremendous social inertia. Bureaucracy does not need a change, transparency, stricter control of the society. Society they need, but something that they happened by themselves. To begin modernization with yourself, of course, possible. But it is unclear why?This logic resembles the logic of Gorbachev's era, then there was a "rebuild". The word "restructuring" has become a code of access to Finance. Because it was necessary to readjust everything: school and pre-school and post-secondary education. And the production of means of production for means of production and means of production for commodities and consumer goods, and generally all. Even adopted a resolution "on a radical restructuring of the economic mechanism".Gorbachev's perestroika is the embodiment of the methodology of "balanced growth", when the pulse changes, theoretically, should be maintained throughout the chain of reproduction. In practice, however, a couple of years, the ruble has become "wooden". Financial resources were spread, scattered, squandered. And four years are not left in financial reserves for the retention of the republics of the Union. The country fell apart.Now it is clear to me that the model of "unbalanced growth" is more suitable for economic policy change. In this case, limited resources, focus on key areas of reform, around which induced private investment.I am very afraid that Medvedev's call for change, modernization will face a shortage of supply of all types of modernization factors: people, managers, technologies, capital, projects. The deficit always leads to higher prices and often lower quality. Because the market start shopping worst analogues that are in short supply.It would be reasonable to concentrate the limited resources modernization vertically" in three areas: electoral practice, judicial reform and the fight against corruption. Progress on each of these areas would create the preconditions for the revival of the modernization activity "from below", from the markets. Because capital in order to settle on a particular area, need long-term factors of stability and predictability associated with microeconomic and institutional settings. Competition, investment, business support, training and retraining, innovation. The existing jurisprudence, corruption, lack of political competition do not allow to reliably predict private capital transaction costs in the development of investment and business projects.Change in the country is necessary. Without the intellectual support of the Russian elite, the President is unlikely to overcome the conservatism of the Russian society. The plan of Medvedev brave to recklessness. This is a desperate plan. But if its implementation will follow the path inclusive of the dispersal of resources under the slogan "upgrade!", then we all lose. And I want to win. Because you wanna live in Russia, dynamic and prosperous, safe and free.