An end to Russian economic miracle
The Financial Times has published a review of the status and prospects of the Russian economy, which is unlikely to please the Kremlin. At the moment, there exists the following official perception of economic reality: the Russian economic miracle was somewhat retarded by the financial shock of a foreign origin.In the period 2000-2008 annual growth of the Russian economy exceeded 7%, the real salary increased by 15%, the Federal budget showed annually increasing surplus. In June, on the eve of the crisis, President Medvedev promised to transform Moscow into a financial capital of the world, and the ruble - in the main reserve currency.Now is the moment of truth, and the Russian leadership must rethink some basic truth and its place in the global economy. 80% of Russian exports consists of oil, gas and metals. Economic boom, the completion of which we are witnesses, was caused by two main reasons - a sharp devaluation of the ruble in 98-99, and equally sharp rise in world prices for minerals on world markets.Between the years 2000-2007 metals prices rose by 275%. The energy to 210% and food - 1610%. Now, however ,it becomes clear that the rise of prices for resources reached a peak in July 2008. Since the aggregate price index for minerals declined by 20%.This fact is key for the further development of the Russian economy. The consumer economy is nothing more than an add-on is a huge mechanism of sucking and sale of natural resources. Once the motor exports will begin to stall due to falling prices, it is immediately reflected on the consumer economy and the standard of living. The Russian budget has a price of 70 dollars per barrel of oil. Currently the price of a barrel 65 dollars. The arithmetic is simple - the lower the price of a barrel of oil at one dollar means that during the year the Russian Treasury will not be counted 3 billion.The Russian banking system has proved ineffective in the case of redistribution of oil profits in other sectors of the economy. Russia still has many banks, and most of them suffer from insufficient capitalization. Russian banks and companies owe Western about 450 billion dollars, of which about 50 have to be paid before the end of this year. The most conservative estimates, the fall in mineral prices and the credit crisis has already cost Russia 2% annual economic growth.The current crisis will be a real test of the legacy of the Putin era. Foreign policy of the second Russian President was based on "energy breakthrough" - the recovery of the global influence through the use of cudgels the country's energy resources, without regard to anything except the so-called "electorate".Now Russia will have to roll so loudly advertised program "geopolitical ambitions and to bring it into line with the actual weight of the country - which is, by and large, only 3% of world gross product - a place somewhere between Brazil and Australia is very good, but terribly far from the Eurasian claims of the Kremlin elitemignews.