Moscow is betting on the candidate, and the instability in Ukraine

Katerina KobernikWhen in 2004, a close ally of Viktor Yushchenko, the son of the Ukrainian dissident Vyacheslav Chornovil, Taras moved to the side of the government candidate Viktor Yanukovych and became a member of its parliamentary faction, Parliament gasped. And not only because mentor Yanukovych, Leonid Kuchma, many believed involved in the death of his father. But also because at the time of joining Chornovil to regionals losing to Yanukovych was predictable. Despite this, in the new party's recent opposition lingered for a long time. Becoming one of its leaders, he was even able to get into the top three of the party list in the parliamentary elections of 2007. At regionals in the native resident was laying several duties. First, to campaign for Yanukovych of his fellow countrymen. Secondly, to demonstrate that the party has not only oligarchs, but also the ideological fighters. Like him. However, the ideology of the native party he was disappointed and in October 2008 came out of it, citing care internal schism and intrigue. Now Chornovil, one of the few independent deputies, boldly criticizes parliamentary leaders and reveals the secrets of Happy without regard to former colleagues. About the format of the future coalition, early parliamentary elections, the Pro-Kremlin candidates and the eventual winner of the second round he said in an interview with Slon.THE DREAM OF THE PRESIDENT- In your opinion, the scandal with the Russian spies a few days before the second round occurred by chance, or it may play into the hands of one of the candidates?- I'm sure it's a coincidence. Who can it help? SBU is fully controlled by Yushchenko. He now will not play along with neither Yanukovych nor Tymoshenko. And the scandal itself is not associated with the policy, and strategic information. I don't think anyone was surprised that in Ukraine there are spies from the neighboring States.- A vote in Parliament on the resignation of Lutsenko is a signal that Lytvyn agreed with regionals on reformatting of the coalition?- No. This is too exaggerated. Rather, Litvin showed that it needed to be. And then his unit almost forgot. But to leave the current coalition is unprofitable for two reasons. First, if he leaves, then this will give rise to Yanukovych in case of victory, to dissolve Parliament. And for new parliamentary elections, he can not get. Secondly, at regionals in the current Parliament to create a coalition doesn't have the votes. I know that the nuns in the majority against the coalition with party of regions. And unless we Litvin, the regions and the Communists of the necessary 226 votes, not typed.- So now Tymoshenko in case of victory will have to share Ministerial portfolios litvinovets?I think so. You also noticed that after the vote on Tymoshenko, Lutsenko, unlike her fellow party members, the speaker is not particularly criticized. Released, there one some remark publicly, and all. So, it is a signal understood. But, in fact, even if you become the President Yanukovych, the rule will be the one who will be holding a parliamentary majority. And to have it, Litvin Tymoshenko is simply necessary. So to share with them have. Especially now there are unfilled vacancies in the Cabinet. By the way, before this issue has already been raised, but then failed to start.- Being inside Parliament, can be called the most real coalition after the elections?- Now objectively it seems that the majority is formed around the BUTTES. That is, if Yanukovych wins, he will be a President without powers, like Yushchenko, and the war between the President and the government will continue. There are options, but they are less real. For example, the nu-NS will form a coalition with the regionals. But, as I said, there such steps are not ready. It is possible that in the case of Yanukovych's victory will be even coalition regionals with BYUT. This is possible if Yanukovych tired to struggle with Tymoshenko and a desire to work. But it is unlikely.But Yanukovych is now clearly ready to dissolve Parliament in case of victory.- He is unlikely to go. Now the regionals are the biggest faction. But in a new election, according to my calculations, they gain the 120 votes. And this is if the election is held in the spring. If the fall - and less. After all, presidential and parliamentary elections are two different things. Now in the East of Ukraine understand that the second round could go only one candidate Yanukovych, so voted for him. In the parliamentary will be many, and there everyone will make a choice not against someone.Besides, if the election is held, at Tigipko has a chance to hold in the Parliament of their 80 people. Yatsenyuk can count on 30-40. And where is the guarantee that the regionals will agree with them? But if a fraction of them will decrease, the position in the negotiations will also be less profitable.Tymoshenko, by the way, the election is disadvantageous for the same reasons. It is now easier to negotiate.

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