Dictatorship sluggish development
SVETLANA BOCHAROVA"Development dictatorship" is the most probable scenario of development of the political situation in Russia in the next two years. This is the conclusion of the group of experts, whose report on Monday will release the Fund INDEM.Recently the presentation of the work "Scenarios for Russia 2008-2009". Possible scenarios of transformation of the political regime in Russia has described numerous group of experts, composed of journalist and political scientist Yevgenia Albats, economist Alexander Auzan, political scientist Emil pain, economist Leonid Smirnyagin, and also the President of the INDEM Foundation Georgy Satarov. This short-term forecast, which we must understand so that we can represent the images of the future in relation to their acts or omissions, which can change something," explained Satarov, who presented the project.According to Satarov, five scenarios of possible transformations of the political regime in Russia were named in 2005.Last brainstorming, during which it was estimated the probability of realization in Russia of one of the scenarios, the experts held on 18 October, in the context of the global financial crisis.In total, the experts identified five possible scenarios for Russia in the next two years:- inertial "Sluggish Russia",- quasiprojective "development Dictatorship",- "Security dictatorship", implying a tightening of the regime in order to self-preservation,- "Revolution" whose chief characteristic is illegitimate change of power, and, finally,script Smart Russia (Smart Russia"), which provides for urgent liberalization and movement on the Western way.Assessing the chances of the possibility of those or other rotary event, experts have identified as one of the key - the emergence of new influential political force. Such political force, according to their opinion, now is not, and soon her appearance is not expected. However, if such force and will, experts say, is not on the right political flank, and on the left.In General in the coming years, experts expect either to maintain the status quo in the political field, either, with the amendment to the financial crisis, a slight rise of conflict.If the experts are wrong and the crisis in Russia will be tough, the likely implementation scenarios "Security dictatorship, when the government will be forced to defend themselves, or "Revolution". None of these scenarios experts not happy: "the society's Activity in this case is manifested as a reaction to the crisis. And it will work as swinging element," believes Satarov. However, at present the resources of a society is evaluated by experts as extremely small, and rigid actions of the authorities as unlikely.Anyway, as of 18 October, the experts considered the most likely scenario "development Dictatorship". "Only I warn you that it will not be Singapore," pointedly remarked Satarov.With such a forecast is not agreed by the head of the Higher school of economy Evgenie Yasin. Noting that while, like all those present, perceived only by ear, he nevertheless suggested that "we live in an atmosphere of "Sluggish Russia, and the crisis will pass and we will live in a "Sluggish Russia". According to Yassin, in particular the stiffness, which will inevitably have to apply under scenario "development Dictatorship", the Russian authorities are not ready. Development, in his opinion, if someone in a position and willing, all his bright ideas will surely drown in coordination with members of his team.In addition, reserved forecasts Yassin are based on the assumption that the global financial crisis in Russia too deep. "Nothing will happen. Well, even more and all will be poorer," he said.