New world order (The Times, UK)
The fight against terrorism has ceased to be a foreign policy priority of the West. Now the main goal is to curb sovereign nationalism and to accustom him to democratic ideals.Serious sport, according to George Orwell, it is war without the shooting. In this case, the Olympics in Beijing was a world war that, according to the Americans, won the United States (taking first place in the number of medals), but in the opinion of the rest of the world - China (received the highest number of gold medals).The Olympics has long been the scene of peaceful competition between the Great powers, reflecting the movement of wealth and power in our world from West to East. Far from 'Bird's nest' [Beijing national stadium - approx. lane is even more alarming is the contest of ideas. Terrorism and global warming have already declared themselves in this century as two existential threats to people around the world. Without the nihilism of the terrorist attacks of September 11 and apocalyptic warnings about climate change are ambitious autocracies like China, Russia and the Gulf countries - have begun to challenge not only the legitimacy but also the desirability of democratic liberalism in the Western style.In these same two Olympic weeks Russia fought and won a war with Georgia, the continuation of which was yesterday's threat to ban NATO access to Afghanistan through the territory controlled by Russia. Investment authority Abu Dhabi that has saved the American banking giant Citi-group, quietly making moves to acquire a key stake in the Corporation Daimler. But Barack Obama finally decided on the candidate for Vice-President: Senator Joe Biden (Joe Biden) who have distinguished themselves in the field of foreign policy.The paradox here may be that the experience of Biden's foreign policy will be made irrelevant. After all, in order to deal with new autocracies, the new U.S. President will have to deal with the political philosophy, to ridicule which is much more difficult than the global Jihad, and which are far more likely to undermine the Western model of liberal democracy that underpin the welfare of the Western world since 1945Autocrats, and chief among them is Hu Jintao and Vladimir Putin - thrive because was able to offer its citizens a sharp increase in personal wealth in exchange for political submission. They don't respect Western predictions about the desire of the masses for democracy.Approximately two billion people all are carefully cultivated nationalism, similar to what we see in Beijing, and the burden of massive and corrupt bureaucracy. Even more troubling, the strengthening of authoritarian regimes to Western governments. It rips off countless attempts to achieve an enlightened consensus, taken in the UN and other institutions, the problems, the only hope for the solution of which is international cooperation. In the news from around the world - from Zimbabwe to Gaza and from Georgia to Darfur dominate the victim.In January 1991 the first President Bush, speaking in the oval office, told the Americans that the collapse of Soviet communism gives you the opportunity to create for us and for future generations a new world order; a world in which the conduct of Nations defines the rule of law and not law of the jungle'. The following year Francis Fukuyama (Francis Fukuyama) announced the end of history, the coming victory of democracy and free markets in the 'cold war'. We never took advantage of the opportunity, with great enthusiasm, told Bush the elder, and Fukuyama, as it turned out, was completely wrong. The story is back and how! Began a new Chapter in which Western Democrats (in a broader interpretation which includes most of South America and the Far East) is forced to defend the fundamental ideas about freedom, representation and the law.Western consumers understand all too well the role of the nature of their costs in the new new world order. Rapid growth in energy demand has led to growth in oil prices from $ 16 per barrel in 2001 to $ 115 today. According to forecasts, the proposal would remain as limited and at least another five years, prices will remain at 120-140 dollars per barrel. This will cause an increase in sovereign wealth funds of oil-producing countries, in particular Russia and the Persian Gulf States, with 3 trillion dollars today up to 15 trillion by 2015.Most likely, the pace of growth in China and India will continue. Inflation accelerated to a great extent by their own demand for food and energy, will slow double-digit growth, thanks to which millions of people in each of these countries no longer live in poverty. But their export driven economy, which in the case of China strengthened through exchange controls, will continue to transform their society. According to one forecast, by 2020 the Chinese middle class will grow seven times, and this 700-million army of wealthy people will need cars, gasoline and building materials.This year, the number of India's middle class may exceed 500 million, and all of its adult residents have the right to vote. The successful combination of democracy and growth in the sub-continent confirmed the argument that the growth of prosperity in any country will inevitably lead to the need for democracy. But today this argument looks weak as ever.United Arab Emirates, which is one of the most striking examples of new wealth, invest in diversifying the envy of any capitalist. Dubai is the city just 'the best', it is the tallest building will be completed only after a year, but is already the highest in the world. Not far behind him and Abu Dhabi, has invested $ 200 billion in one only the tourist facilities and meeting rooms. Soon the total GDP of the countries of the Persian Gulf will exceed Chinese and Western multinationals, as expected, are fighting for market share of a new Middle East. However, the intention of the Emirates as a global investor remain opaque, and their tendency to minimal democracy.In Russia, Putin took advantage continued for seven years by the influx of petrodollars to pay off debts to foreign countries, taken during the Soviet era, and create gold reserves in 480 billion. This money will easily cover most prestigious project of the new Russia Olympics 2014 in Sochi. But his 'guided democracy' is only a parody of the real, and the rule of law, promised by him and his successor, does not exist.The Olympics has cost China 40 billion, but it's less than 1 percent of the amount that Beijing is currently investing in its infrastructure. Olympic budget does not look so impressive on the background of almost 500 billion us dollars, China has invested in government securities of the United States. After 19 years after the events in Tiananmen square, many in Washington had hoped that they create the preconditions for a new democratic wave in China, which will sweep away everything in its path. Instead, a one-party capitalist miracle of China serves as a support for their own financial system.If autocrats have always been so generous. Foreign Minister David Miliband, only occupying his post, immediately began to persuade Beijing, and now Moscow, to see the benefits of joining the Western 'system, based on the rules'. He did not succeed. One of the first evidence of failure was the refusal of China to stop supporting the leaders of Sudan and Zimbabwe al-Bashir and Mugabe. Russia's refusal to respect the international borders of Georgia and to follow the letter of the recent agreements on cease-fire is just the latest of such evidence.In each case, the answer to the supplications of Miliband was ignoring the rules - in fact, those rules that are embodied in global institutions led by the United States, created in the 1940s for a narrowly conceived national interests. Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the importance spoke of 'a truly competitive environment for ideas' in international relations, but the result is the same: paralysis in the UN Security Council, where only last month the international initiative of Georgia and Zimbabwe were thwarted by the veto of Russia and China.Growing confidence autocracies does not Bode well for young democracies within their spheres of influence - from Georgia and Ukraine to Indonesia. The same can be said about recent peace initiatives in Kashmir and the middle East, or another international crisis that will require a consensus decision, whether the maintenance of peace in the Arctic, the preservation of the neutral status of Australia and the denuclearization of outer space.But don't despair neither presidential candidates U.S. or European leaders. The combination of liberal democracy with freedom of markets remains the most humane, but the most durable system of government ever invented. It is to her that owe their power to China, Russia and the Gulf countries, despite the fact that their ruling elites equally inherent in the fundamental lack of legitimacy, making them more vulnerable than it might seem.It's not too late to include new autocracy in the system based on rules, but these systems are in need of modernization, which is not only Western governments.China, Russia and the Gulf countries have been enriched by cheap production and high oil prices. They grew bolder, watching those that they considered to be social dysfunction, economic instability and political arrogance of the West. There is a danger that will stop the March of history towards global democracy and the idea of 'global community', a collaborative effort of fighting common threats. Regardless of who wins the presidential election in the United States - Barack Obama or John McCain - the next generation of Western leaders will face a new new world order.